Bonus Expected Value Explained
How to calculate the real mathematical value of casino bonuses.
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical average outcome of a bet or bonus over many repetitions. For casino bonuses, it tells you what a bonus is actually worth after accounting for wagering requirements, game restrictions, and other terms.
Calculating Bonus EV
The formula: EV = Bonus Amount × (1 - House Edge × Wagering Requirement). For example, a $100 bonus with 30x wagering on slots with 96% RTP: EV = $100 × (1 - 0.04 × 30) = $100 × (1 - 1.2) = -$20. This bonus has negative expected value, meaning you'll lose $20 on average.
Finding Positive EV Bonuses
Positive EV bonuses exist but are rare. Look for: low wagering requirements (under 25x), access to high-RTP games, generous max bet limits, and long expiry periods. Our rankings calculate EV for every bonus we track.
Why Wagering Requirements Matter
The wagering requirement is the most important factor in bonus value. A $200 bonus with 50x wagering is usually worth less than a $100 bonus with 20x wagering. Always check the wagering requirement before evaluating a bonus offer.
Disclaimer: This guide is for educational purposes only. Gambling involves risk and should be approached responsibly. Always set limits and never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.
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